Business confidence is climbing - what it means for NZ hospitality

After one of the toughest years in recent memory, New Zealand's business confidence is surging. January saw confidence hit a near 30-year high before settling back to levels not seen since 2014. For hospitality operators, this shift signals something important: the worst may be behind you.

Here's what the recovery looks like and how to position your business for what's ahead.

The confidence shift is real

Business confidence jumped dramatically in late 2025, with a net 64% of businesses expecting better economic conditions. While January saw a slight retreat, confidence remains historically high at levels not seen in over a decade.

More importantly, businesses' own expectations - how they feel about their own prospects sit at 52%, which is also historically strong. This isn't just optimism about "the economy" in abstract terms. Operators are feeling more confident about their own venues.

Employment is rising across all sectors for the first time since late 2022, and reported activity levels are at their second-highest reading since August 2021. The economy has clearly turned a corner.

What's driving the turnaround?

Two things: aggressive interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank and easing cost pressures. Lower rates make borrowing more affordable and free up consumer spending. For hospitality, that translates to more people willing to book tables and spend on experiences again.

Consumer confidence, while still fragile, has started to improve. Even modest increases in foot traffic can materially change the outlook for cafés, bars and restaurants, and operators are starting to see those gains.

The challenges haven't disappeared

While the direction of travel is positive, cost pressures remain. Inflation expectations have risen to their highest level in 15 months, and wage pressures are starting to lift modestly. More firms expect to raise prices over the next two years.

For hospitality, this means the margin squeeze isn't over. Food costs are still running above overall inflation, and labour remains tight. The recovery doesn't mean returning to easy conditions, but it creates a shift from survival mode to strategic mode.

How to make the most of the momentum

The venues that will benefit most from rising confidence are the ones investing now in the foundations that support long-term success.

Focus on efficiency. With wage and food costs still elevated, the only way to protect margins is to work smarter. Equipment that reduces prep time, cuts waste~~,~~ or improves consistency pays for itself quickly.

Strengthen your customer experience. As confidence improves, diners will return but they'll have more choices. The venues that win are the ones delivering memorable experiences, not just good meals.

Position for growth without overextending. Rising confidence doesn't mean taking on massive risk. Smart operators are testing, refining, and scaling carefully rather than betting big on a full recovery.

The opportunity ahead

New Zealand's hospitality sector generated $21.4 billion in revenue in the year to March 2025 and employs over 220,000 people nationwide. Forecasts from the Reserve Bank, Treasury, and independent economists suggest strong growth in 2026 and 2027.

The sector has weathered the storm. Now it's about positioning for the upswing.

Whether it's upgrading equipment to improve efficiency, investing in customer experience, or simply having the flexibility to adapt as conditions improve, the key is being ready when momentum builds.

With SilverChef's Rent-Try-Buy, you can invest in your operation without massive upfront costs. Test new equipment. Adapt as your business grows. Upgrade when you're ready.

The recovery is underway. Make sure your business is positioned to capture it.